Welcome to Borderlands
An inquiry into Scotland's political borderlands
After 14 years of Conservatives in power, it is anticipated that the next election will bring an end to a Government, which alongside all major parties has managed to foster increased alienation and disillusionment in the electoral process, as seen by the turnout at the Rutherglen By-election of just 37%.
This is an inquiry into the communities and the people that make up the 21 Westminster Constituencies which are on the front lines of this election. It is a journey through the borderlands between political allegiances, trying to escape a constitutional no mans land, lost in a landscape suffering from 14 years of austerity, inflation and an unprecedented rise in the cost of living..
The Borderlands, In total there will be 57 Westminster seats up for election in Scotland. Political consultancy firm Electoral Calculus predicts that 21 Constituencies will change hands in Scotland at the next General Election.
14 of the 21 Westminster constituencies that could change hands are areas which the Scottish Government state contain high levels of multiple deprivation; All 6 Glasgow seats have a high likelihood to change hands, collectively within them there are 339 (out of 746) of the most deprived zones in Scotland. Inverclyde there are 51 (out of 114), The 3 North Lanarkshire seats that could switch, have 153 zones, and the 3 Fife seats share 97 zones of the most deprived.
The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) is a relative measure of deprivation across 6,976 small areas (called data zones). If an area is identified as ‘deprived’, this can relate to people having a low income but it can also mean fewer resources or opportunities. SIMD looks at the extent to which an area is deprived across seven domains: income, employment, education, health, access to services, crime and housing.
Using the data collated by the SIMD (Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation) we can see that;
- 13 of the 20 areas which have the highest levels of multiple deprivation are in seats that are likely to change hands in the next General election.
- 12 of the 20 areas that have the lowest income levels are in seats that are likely to change hands in the next General election.
- 17 of the 20 areas that have the highest unemployment levels are in seats that are likely to change hands in the next General election.
- 16 of the 20 areas with the lowest levels of Education and Skill attainment are in seats likely to change hands at the next General Election
- 15 of the 20 areas with the highest levels of health inequalities are in seats likely to change at the next General Election
- 12 of the 20 areas with the highest overcrowding are in seats likely to change hands at the next General Election
This is an election where the poorest constituencies have the potential to have a huge say in the outcome, of not only their local election but which party will be asked to form a Government at Westminster.
This potential however, may be impeded by two changes to the voting system for the next General Election. This will be the first election since the 2023 Boundary changes furthermore it will also be the first UK Election requiring voters to produce ID.
This project plans to look at these changes and the impact they will have in more detail as part of a multi format documentary series, exploring how people and communities in each of the predicted swing seats, are responding to the challenging issues upon which they have been labelled as deprived; income, employment, education, health, access to services, crime and housing.